In late August, the herbicide market entered a slow season of consolidation amid high temperatures and production maintenance. Plant shutdowns and production limitations have become routine, while the market awaits signals for the next demand cycle.
The current herbicide market overall reflects a pattern of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, production rates have declined due to summer heat and scheduled maintenance. On the demand side, the market is in a seasonal lull, with sluggish procurement activity both domestically and internationally. Market sentiment is cautious, with both upstream and downstream enterprises waiting for new driving forces.
In terms of specific product prices, glyphosate, as a bulk product, currently maintains a price of 26,500-27,000 yuan/ton for 95% technical grade, with the market stabilizing and consolidating. Glufosinate-ammonium technical material is in tight supply, quoted between 45,000-47,000 yuan/ton, but demand is struggling to keep up despite supply constraints. Notably, the prices of 2,4-D technical and oxyfluorfen technical have shown an upward trend, with 2,4-D technical now reported at 15,000 yuan/ton and oxyfluorfen technical quoted at 130,000-140,000 yuan/ton.
In August, during the peak of summer heat, several production companies scheduled planned maintenance, particularly concentrated among glyphosate producers. This has led to a tightening of market supply in the short term, but given the current low demand season, the supply constraints have not drastically impacted the market. Intermediate supply has gradually eased, with triethylamine quoted at 11,100-12,200 yuan/ton, providing some cost support for downstream technical production.
On the demand side, domestic needs are generally in a phase of essential restocking. Terminal channels are mainly digesting inventory from the previous peak season, and a new restocking cycle has not yet started on a large scale. Internationally, the procurement season in South America is nearing its end, and new foreign trade orders have not yet picked up. Overseas customers are largely adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with weak purchasing intentions.
The U.S. EPA recently proposed reapproving three dicamba-containing herbicide products for use under regulated conditions, raising expectations for a recovery in the U.S. market. Industry analysts suggest that if the U.S. market recovers as expected and emerging markets like Brazil follow the EPA's policy direction, demand for dicamba could see significant growth. Currently, its price is at a historical low, leaving room for recovery.
The China Pesticide Industry Association is conducting a "Rectify Winds and Curb Roll-Ups" action in the pesticide industry, aimed at standardizing market秩序 and promoting long-term healthy development. This move may positively impact regulating market competition秩序 and preventing恶性 low-price competition, benefiting the industry's sustainable growth.
In the short term, the herbicide market is expected to maintain a volatile but stable pattern. The market is in a phase of waiting for the start of a new cycle, with the South American peak season ending and North American demand not yet fully activated. For agricultural input distributors and growers, this is a transition period between slow and peak seasons. They should closely monitor signals for the start of autumn demand and procure based on actual needs, avoiding large-scale stockpiling.
The market is still waiting for clear signals—whether from the EPA's final decision on dicamba or the actual start of the autumn peak season. During this period, steady management is wiser than aggressive expansion. Industry participants should closely watch policy trends and market demand changes to prepare for the next market cycle.
More information can be found at CCM Herbicide China Monthly Report.
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